The impact of carbon black feedstock industry tension
Second half of 2005, as carbon black feedstock prices suddenly soared, the average tar and anthracene oil climbed more than 1,000 yuan per ton, and the source of supply, once there is no market price, carbon black industry has therefore been an unprecedented impact on lead to limited production scale of enterprises, some small enterprises have ceased production, the industry profits falling sharply.
According to analysis, three quarters of carbon black feedstock scarce for three main reasons: First, as heavy oil prices, will be ethylene tar ethylene producers for their own fuel, the external supply less and less. According to the China Rubber Industry Association, estimates of carbon black branch last year, consumption of carbon black industry, carbon black raw material ethylene tar oil accounts for nearly 15% of ethylene tar yield of 50%, but this year has been significantly reduced; second, glass, ceramic enterprises buy a large number of coal tar, anthracene oil, instead of expensive heavy oil as fuel production, or even a high carbon black plant feedstock Lan Jie; Third, coal tar, anthracene oil exports surge in first half of this year, up 4 times.
According to Coke Association, 2004 National Coal tar yield of about 700 million tons, while Shanxi is not represented by full use of about 1.8 million -190 million tons of coal tar. Industry insiders estimate that China’s coal tar processing capacity in the next few years will reach 8 million -1000 tons, coking enterprises will change, “not only focus” of the phenomenon of black coal resources for raw materials will be drastically reduced. Therefore, how to deal with resource constraints of the status quo, has become urgent to think and solve the carbon black industry issues.
The current carbon black raw material market, subject to price and supply constraints, mainly in coal tar and anthracene oil-based, ethylene tar secondary. Industry analysis, see the current supply of resources, the future will anthracene oil-based carbon black production, imports of FCC oil supplement. In the carbon black feedstock prices rise, resource constraints exacerbated the situation, the China Rubber Industry Association, National Development and Reform Commission has been an urgent call for abolition of coal tar, anthracene oil 13% export tax rebate policy to restrict or prohibit the coal tar, anthracene oil exports, and asked relevant departments of ethylene tar.
According to statistics branch of carbon black, the output, the first half of the carbon black production of 536,900 tons, up 21.99 percent; and 1-9 month production of 810,300 tons, up 12.96%, compared with a decrease of 9 percentage points in the first half, indicating the third quarter black enterprise have different levels of cuts, including carbon black production into the dry since 2005, has been in a downward trend. 1-September sales area sales of 802,300 tons of carbon black, up 22.07%; product sales rate reached 95.79 percent, an increase of 4%, sales growth, output growth over the same period by almost 10 percentage points. Costs, 1 unit cost of carbon black in September rose 15%, while the first half of the unit cost increase of only 8.7%; from July to September the average production cost per ton of carbon higher than in the first half of 1068 yuan, if the go out by mid-July did not factor in price increases, carbon black unit manufacturing cost estimated to average higher than in the first half of 1800 yuan / ton. Price of carbon black, 7-September first half of the average selling price higher than the 474 yuan / ton, but the product price less than the increase in unit cost increase of 1 / 2, meaning more than half of the profits to be eaten raw material prices factor .
As in the first quarter is the carbon black production season, the industry profit level is low, modest growth, profit 23.22 million yuan, up 17.47 percent; into the second quarter, the industry overall high level of profitability, sales booming, exports substantially increase, the rapid increase in production capacity, profit 67.59 million yuan, up 131.87 percent year on year growth; into the third quarter, far less than the second quarter, profits, profit 36 million yuan, up 23.85% reduction, raw material prices do to the carbon black industry with to the attacks.
It is understood that in October after the basic carbon black raw material market has stabilized, there is no market price of the phenomenon have been eased. The current transaction price per ton of coal tar mainstream element in 2200-2300, up to 2,500 yuan; anthracene oil average price per tonne in 2900-3000. Industry insiders estimate that coal tar prices will be short term to maintain the current level. As the heavy oil price has small price difference between coal tar, and heavy oil as fuel oil, high heat value than coal tar, so most of the glass, ceramic enterprises to switch to fuel oil, coal tar were watching the production process, coal tar supply trend in smooth.
The industry believes that long-term stability if the price of raw materials, the advantages and disadvantages of the combination of carbon black industry. Disadvantages of high raw material costs ate in industry profit, profit business structure in the carbon black can be adjusted to limit the survival of small enterprises and development of carbon black. It is reported that Shanxi small black businesses be discontinued, so that excess supply has improved carbon black.
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